Another war in the Middle East is, more than likely, a foregone conclusion. Such wars have erupted many times since the State of Israel came into existence. Originally, I related these wars to the American Indian wars when we Americans pushed the Indians westward into the deserts and planes of the West in the name of Manifest Destiny. The problem that Israel faces these days is that there are to damn many Indians.

In the beginning Israel probably had no legal rights to land in Palestine much like our forefathers had no legal right to the Americas. It is sufficient to say, however, that they have concurred the land and held it long enough to justify their rights to what is now Israel. The State of Israel has been recognized by a majority of world governments for almost 50 years. I believe, that by imminent domain, if nothing else, that the State of Israel has a right to exist.

Having said all that, it is still quite evident to me that Israel will continue to be the hot spot in the Middle East for decades, if not centuries, to come, as it has been for thousands of years in the past. Religious warriors of both religions sides have seldom come to terms with their adversaries (the infidels).

I suspect that the first nuclear war will eventually erupt over the State of Israel. The Israelis have had such weapons since probably the early 1970s. It would be naive to think that during the numerous wars Israel has had with Arab countries, out numbered ten to one, that these weapons were not cocked and loaded as weapons of last resort. Today Syria, Iran, and Iraq are the primary threats to Israel. Each of these countries is capable of developing nuclear weapons in the not too distant future, if they have not already. Only Iran is showing any resemblance of stability at the moment. Iraq has already attacked Israel with conventional warhead missiles. Had Israel not wiped out Iraq's nuclear capability with air strikes in the late 1980s, those missiles may well have been nuclear. Syria is basically a Moslem extremist country that openly trains and supports Hamas, the terrorist organization that is dedicated to the overthrow of Israel. I have no doubt that Hamas would use nuclear weapons if they were made available to them.

Enemies or potential enemies surround Israel on all sides. Israel will, no doubt, use nuclear weapons against any nation or army that they feel are in danger of over throwing them.

In recent years Jordan and Egypt have moderated their position on Israel under the leadership of strong heads of state. Many of the Moslem extremists in these countries have been jailed or exiled. Those exiled and fugitive from justice seem to have ended up in Pakistani and Afghanistan. Many have sworn allegiance to Al Qaeda.

The wild card in the Middle East is Saudi Arabia. While the Saudis support a Palestinian State openly, some in the royal family have probably supported much more. Saudi Arabia is unique to that part of the world in that they have experienced prosperity and like it. They now live the good life supported by oil income. It is in their interest to maintain relations with the United States, as we are the oil consumer of the world. We are their market place. While Saudi Arabia is not a direct threat to Israel, their money is. We should not forget that most of the 9-11 pilots were from Saudi Arabia and that we are still the infidels in their eyes as much as the Jews.

Iraq is the next target of Israel if the United States does not do it first for them. Iraq is now financing suicide attacks on Israel by paying compensation to the families of the bombers and probably more. Israel will not tolerate this for any length of time without a response. It is in the United States interest for Israel not to go to war with Iraq, as it could unify the Arab world against Israel and the United States. I fully expect US Forces will attack Iraq in the near future to avoid this problem and correct others.

There are many misconceptions about the Arab and Israeli wars. One is that the Israeli military is a highly organized fighting machine. It is, in fact, the best urban fighting army in the world. But, organized? NO! The Israeli soldier is usually poorly trained, undisciplined, and unorganized, sometimes to the point of chaos. Their success is, for the most part, because of their courage and desire to win and their exquisite leadership. Their leaders are down and dirty commanders who lead from up front rather than the rear.

Arab forces actually function well as a unit. Most are even trained well. Their problem has to do with their age-old rhetoric. They talk a better fight than they can produce, then over commit. The classic example is Iraq. Hussein has a well-equipped and trained army. But he bits off more than he can chew every time he opens his mouth. For the most part, this kind of talk is part of barter in Arab life. But it sure doesn't jell when the whole damn world is staged on your boarder looking for an excuse to kick your ass.

As I said in the beginning, war will be eminent in this part of the world for years to come. These are religious wars and all but the very best Israelis and Arabs will never get past that.

Winston Rogers

July 27, 2002